What does SOSV General Partner Po Bronson see when he looks into Climate Hard Tech’s 2026 Crystal Ball? He recently broke down some thoughts for Climate Hack:
- Reshoring Stall: The reshoring boom will stall in 2026 as renewed steel tariffs make U.S. manufacturing prohibitively expensive. Projects once hailed as symbols of industrial revival will be delayed or canceled, forcing companies to maintain or even expand production in China rather than bring it home.
- Critical Resource Innovation: In 2026, the next wave of critical resource innovation will focus on extracting valuable materials from dilute sources, aka turning waste streams and low-concentration deposits into viable supply. From lithium in brines to methane and copper in trace environments, breakthroughs in separation and recovery will reduce dependence on foreign mines like those in Chile.
- Fertilizer: A fertilizer revolution is coming. By 2026, next-generation fertilizer will be half the cost and half the size, replacing today’s wasteful, high-emission formulations that slow crop performance. Agriculture will finally start treating nutrients like precision-engineered materials, not commodities.